off peak · 23h 4m · Aug 26, 12:31 PM CT
Live Turo rental price trends
// renter-first evidence for 3-day Tesla trips near Chicago O’Hare (ORD) · observed about every hour · methodology →
headline facts from the latest verified observation — every figure is proven by a panel below
Data quality: current prices verified
the cheapest well-supported ways to book this market right now
Best-priced 3-day pickup dates with reliable support
Each date has at least 30 listings, 95% fresh prices, and representative coverage. Close estimates are shown as ties instead of false winners.
ReadFlexible on dates? These are the cheapest well-supported pickup dates in the current observation — the spread between them is what moving pickup can be worth.
method & limits
Ranks well-covered pickup dates by lowest observed typical listing price for this trip length; every date carries at least 30 listings, 95% fresh prices, and representative coverage. These are descriptive medians, not booking guarantees, and overlapping intervals do not establish a winner.
Date × duration explorer — Chicago O’Hare (ORD) ◉ latest observation
Median total and $/day · independent color scale within each duration · all trip lengths shown at once · thin cells never set the scale or mobile ranking
Lowest 12 of 55 well-supported 3-day pickup options
ReadDark cells in your trip-length row are the cheap pockets — aim your search there before opening individual listings.
method & limits
Each cell places a supported pickup-date × trip-length combination within its own duration row’s observed price range. Color scales are row-local and cannot be compared across trip lengths; cells describe current available-listing prices, not future prices.
Free-day deals — longer trip, lower total ◉ latest observation
Same car and pickup date where keeping the car longer totals less · top savings, one deal per car · full stored list in the Free Day finder above
| Car | Pickup | Shorter trip | Longer ↗ | You save |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Cybertruck | Aug 31 | 7d · $2,260 | 8d · $2,001 ↗ | −$259 |
| 2022 Model S | Sep 2 | 6d · $2,081 | 8d · $1,846 ↗ | −$235 |
| 2026 Model Y | Oct 23 | 13d · $2,681 | 14d · $2,458 ↗ | −$223 |
| 2023 Model X | Sep 25 | 13d · $2,624 | 14d · $2,404 ↗ | −$220 |
| 2025 Cybertruck | Sep 1 | 7d · $3,406 | 8d · $3,190 ↗ | −$216 |
| 2024 Cybertruck | Aug 27 | 7d · $3,361 | 8d · $3,148 ↗ | −$213 |
| 2019 Model 3 | Aug 28 | 7d · $2,933 | 8d · $2,747 ↗ | −$186 |
| 2025 Model S | Aug 27 | 7d · $2,668 | 8d · $2,500 ↗ | −$168 |
Top 8 of 2,694 qualifying quote-window opportunities across 109 distinct cars · one quote window = listing × pickup date × trip length.
ReadA longer trip that costs less in total — hosts’ length discounts overshoot; book the longer option and return early if you like.
method & limits
Pairs the same listing and pickup date at two trip lengths inside the latest observation and keeps pairs where the longer total is strictly lower; one representative deal per car, largest savings first. Savings compare pre-tax bookable totals inside the observed quote window; availability can change before booking, and the stored deal list is capped.
Largest detected price decreases ⟲ 48h
1,079 listing events · 110,888 affected trip prices · 162 distinct listings
| Detected | Market | Listing | Representative trip | Affected surface | Price | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2023 Model 3host view → | Aug 28–29 · 1d | 500 trip-price combinations · 49 pickup dates · 1–14d | $313 → $126 | ↓59.7% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2021 Model Yhost view → | Oct 1–15 · 14d | 250 trip-price combinations · 24 pickup dates · 1–14d | $1,372 → $862 | ↓37.2% |
| Aug 25, 7:30 PM CT | LAX | 2021 Model Yhost view → | Sep 19–20 · 1d | 182 trip-price combinations · 19 pickup dates · 1–14d | $177 → $123 | ↓30.5% |
| Aug 25, 5:30 PM CT | LAX | 2023 Model 3host view → | Aug 29–30 · 1d | 9 trip-price combinations · 2 pickup dates · 1–6d | $251 → $184 | ↓26.7% |
| Aug 25, 5:30 PM CT | LAX | 2021 Model Yhost view → | Aug 29–30 · 1d | 15 trip-price combinations · 3 pickup dates · 1–12d | $203 → $149 | ↓26.6% |
| Aug 26, 9:30 AM CT | LAX | 2022 Model Yhost view → | Oct 6–7 · 1d | 341 trip-price combinations · 25 pickup dates · 1–14d | $104 → $78 | ↓25.0% |
| Aug 25, 7:30 PM CT | LAX | 2020 Model Yhost view → | Sep 13–14 · 1d | 130 trip-price combinations · 15 pickup dates · 1–14d | $108 → $81 | ↓25.0% |
| Aug 26, 9:30 AM CT | LAX | 2022 Model Yhost view → | Sep 4–5 · 1d | 211 trip-price combinations · 18 pickup dates · 1–14d | $173 → $130 | ↓24.9% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2026 Model Yhost view → | Sep 10–17 · 7d | 431 trip-price combinations · 34 pickup dates · 1–14d | $1,491 → $1,124 | ↓24.6% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | ORD | 2021 Model Yhost view → | Sep 3–7 · 4d | 417 trip-price combinations · 34 pickup dates · 1–14d | $490 → $370 | ↓24.5% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2023 Model Yhost view → | Oct 23–Nov 6 · 14d | 812 trip-price combinations · 58 pickup dates · 1–14d | $1,180 → $891 | ↓24.5% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | ORD | 2024 Model Yhost view → | Sep 3–5 · 2d | 407 trip-price combinations · 32 pickup dates · 1–14d | $297 → $225 | ↓24.2% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2016 Model Xhost view → | Sep 7–10 · 3d | 462 trip-price combinations · 33 pickup dates · 1–14d | $296 → $225 | ↓24.0% |
| Aug 25, 7:30 PM CT | LAX | 2023 Model 3host view → | Sep 14–15 · 1d | 291 trip-price combinations · 25 pickup dates · 1–14d | $198 → $153 | ↓22.7% |
| Aug 25, 3:30 PM CT | LAX | 2023 Model Yhost view → | Sep 3–4 · 1d | 3 trip-price combinations · 1 pickup date · 1–3d | $160 → $124 | ↓22.5% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | ORD | 2016 Model Shost view → | Sep 5–6 · 1d | 82 trip-price combinations · 7 pickup dates · 1–14d | $121 → $94 | ↓22.3% |
| Aug 25, 6:30 PM CT | LAX | 2026 Model Yhost view → | Sep 1–2 · 1d | 72 trip-price combinations · 8 pickup dates · 1–14d | $372 → $290 | ↓22.0% |
| Aug 26, 10:30 AM CT | LAX | 2025 Cybertruckhost view → | Sep 12–13 · 1d | 523 trip-price combinations · 45 pickup dates · 1–14d | $847 → $671 | ↓20.8% |
| Aug 26, 10:30 AM CT | LAX | 2022 Model Yhost view → | Sep 15–16 · 1d | 3 trip-price combinations · 1 pickup date · 1–3d | $108 → $86 | ↓20.4% |
| Aug 26, 10:30 AM CT | LAX | 2021 Model Yhost view → | Aug 29–30 · 1d | 13 trip-price combinations · 2 pickup dates · 1–10d | $148 → $118 | ↓20.3% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2023 Model Yhost view → | Oct 8–9 · 1d | 826 trip-price combinations · 59 pickup dates · 1–14d | $82 → $66 | ↓19.5% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2026 Model Yhost view → | Sep 9–22 · 13d | 577 trip-price combinations · 59 pickup dates · 1–14d | $890 → $719 | ↓19.2% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | ORD | 2023 Model Yhost view → | Sep 9–10 · 1d | 462 trip-price combinations · 48 pickup dates · 1–14d | $95 → $77 | ↓18.9% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2018 Model Xhost view → | Sep 9–10 · 1d | 462 trip-price combinations · 33 pickup dates · 1–14d | $164 → $134 | ↓18.3% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2026 Model Yhost view → | Sep 9–22 · 13d | 421 trip-price combinations · 51 pickup dates · 1–14d | $864 → $710 | ↓17.8% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2023 Model Xhost view → | Sep 10–20 · 10d | 315 trip-price combinations · 33 pickup dates · 1–14d | $863 → $710 | ↓17.7% |
| Aug 25, 4:30 PM CT | LAX | 2022 Model Yhost view → | Aug 29–30 · 1d | 163 trip-price combinations · 18 pickup dates · 1–14d | $170 → $140 | ↓17.6% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2020 Model Xhost view → | Sep 21–22 · 1d | 196 trip-price combinations · 26 pickup dates · 1–14d | $137 → $113 | ↓17.5% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2022 Model Yhost view → | Oct 18–19 · 1d | 380 trip-price combinations · 47 pickup dates · 1–14d | $172 → $143 | ↓16.9% |
| Aug 26, 6:00 AM CT | LAX | 2026 Model Yhost view → | Sep 21–22 · 1d | 17 trip-price combinations · 8 pickup dates · 1–4d | $151 → $126 | ↓16.6% |
ReadEvery row names an exact trip that just got cheaper — the most directly actionable table on the page.
method & limits
Lists the largest listing-level price decreases detected across fresh listing, pickup-date, and trip-length prices during the retained 48-hour period. Detected time is when Carconomics observed the change, not when the host made it; the table is capped to recent large events and is not a complete host-pricing history.
Repricing behavior — listings cutting price repeatedly ⟲ 48h + ledger
Listings with two or more detected posted-price cuts · sorted by cut count · ledger recorded since Aug 16
| Listing | Market | Cuts · 48h | Cuts since Aug 16 | Largest single cut | Last detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 76 | ↓28.8% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 74 | ↓17.5% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 5 | 73 | ↓13.9% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Xhost view → | LAX | 6 | 73 | ↓21.4% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 73 | ↓38.2% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 72 | ↓10.6% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model 3host view → | LAX | 6 | 72 | ↓18.1% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 72 | ↓29.2% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2022 Model Shost view → | LAX | 6 | 72 | ↓16.8% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
| 2026 Model Yhost view → | LAX | 6 | 72 | ↓10.6% | Aug 26, 12:30 PM CT |
ReadA listing cutting its posted price again and again is walking its price down in the open — worth knowing before you book at the first number you see.
method & limits
Groups the retained 48-hour drop events by listing and, alongside them, an hourly Worker ledger that folds the same events into longer counts (recording began Aug 16); a listing qualifies with two or more detected cuts in either record. Counts are listing-level observed posted-price declines only: motive is not observable, frequent cuts describe pricing behavior rather than strategy, and listing control cannot be attributed to a named host. Detected time is when Carconomics observed each change.
how observed prices move with date, duration, model, and lead time
Current price by trip length ◉ latest observation
Typical listing’s median $/day within each independently supported duration · seven-day host-discount boundary marked
View trip-length data table
| Trip length | Median / day | Middle 80% | Listings | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | $112 | $85.3–$265.9 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 2 days | $110 | $80.65–$258.2 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 3 days | $90.5 | $68.82–$222.97 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 4 days | $86.06 | $64.56–$208.11 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 5 days | $82 | $62.18–$199.46 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 6 days | $79 | $59.44–$191.28 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 7 days | $74.71 | $55.37–$176.59 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 8 days | $67.66 | $51.66–$156.41 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 9 days | $67 | $51.36–$155.84 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 10 days | $67.55 | $51.37–$155.6 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 11 days | $67.36 | $51.38–$155.05 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 12 days | $66.71 | $50.83–$154.24 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 13 days | $65.96 | $50.78–$153.32 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
| 14 days | $62.04 | $47.66–$144.35 | 114 (114 fresh) | Supported |
ReadRead where per-day rates step down as trips stretch — the seven-day marker flags a common host discount-policy boundary.
method & limits
One listing-equal median $/day per independently supported trip length, in the latest observation. The seven-day marker identifies a common discount-policy boundary without proving it caused the step; each duration can contain a different supported listing cohort.
Current 3-day price by days before pickup ◉ selected trip length
Typical listing price per day · shaded middle 50% · optional market comparison
ReadFind your days-out position on this curve: it shows whether close-in quotes look cheaper or pricier than far-out ones in the latest observation.
method & limits
Charts the typical listing $/day against days until pickup, one point per lead-time bucket, with the middle 50% shaded. An unadjusted cross-section: different pickup dates can contain different listings, and the pattern is not evidence that waiting changes a specific car’s price.
Price by pickup weekday ◉ 3-day trips
Listing-equal selected-duration medians with support and 95% intervals · association only
Pooled model-adjusted associations: Fri/Sat pickup +6.0% (95% interval 2.6% to 9.5%). These are not the raw bars above.
ReadPickup day can slide within the week? These bars are the currently observed weekday-to-weekday spread.
method & limits
Listing-equal selected-duration medians per pickup weekday, with support counts and 95% intervals. Raw, unadjusted bars confounded by which cars, dates, and hosts are present — they do not identify a best weekday or a causal weekday effect.
Price by model ◉ 3d
Listing-equal medians · 10–29 listings = thin · at least 30 required to highlight a lowest cohort
ReadThe observed cohort gap shows what switching model moves for the typical listing — weigh it against the date and length spreads above before picking which lever to pull.
method & limits
The typical listing’s median daily price within each current Tesla model cohort for this trip length. Compares current observed cohorts, not vehicle quality or ownership cost; cohort composition can differ, and overlapping intervals do not establish a definitive lowest segment.
Current price range ◉ future pickup dates
Listings quoted anywhere in the future window · 3-day distribution · ORD
ReadThe p10-to-p90 gap is what sorting by price is worth right now — the wider it is, the more comparing pays.
method & limits
Median and middle-80% range of current listing-level daily prices for the selected trip length, across the future quote window. p10–p90 means the middle 80% of listing-level values, not a confidence interval; listings quoted in the future window are observed supply — not demand, bookings, or occupancy.
3-day price distribution history ⟲ complete days only
p10, median, and p90 listing-level $/day · exactly 14 complete supported observations · fresh listings seen below
View 14-day data table
| Complete day | p10 | Median | p90 | Listings | Fresh listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | $73.12 | $95.17 | $240.1 | 114 | 114 |
| Aug 13 | $72.7 | $96.17 | $233.72 | 120 | 120 |
| Aug 14 | $70.53 | $95.17 | $235.27 | 117 | 117 |
| Aug 15 | $69.77 | $95 | $234.37 | 117 | 117 |
| Aug 16 | $70.73 | $96.67 | $214.3 | 119 | 119 |
| Aug 17 | $71.53 | $96.5 | $212.32 | 120 | 120 |
| Aug 18 | $71.28 | $96.5 | $216.72 | 118 | 118 |
| Aug 20 | $70.12 | $91.17 | $217.63 | 118 | 118 |
| Aug 21 | $69 | $88.67 | $231.27 | 117 | 117 |
| Aug 22 | $67.2 | $90.17 | $228.73 | 119 | 119 |
| Aug 23 | $68 | $91.17 | $226.98 | 118 | 118 |
| Aug 24 | $67.9 | $90.33 | $228.07 | 117 | 117 |
| Aug 25 | $69 | $91.42 | $228.17 | 116 | 116 |
| Aug 26 | $68.82 | $90.5 | $222.97 | 114 | 114 |
ReadFourteen complete days of the median and its band — whether waiting has lately been rewarded, at a glance.
method & limits
Plots p10, median, and p90 of listing-level $/day, plus fresh listings seen, across complete supported observation days only. The band is the middle 80% of listing-level values; listing counts are supply observed in our quote window — not demand, bookings, occupancy, or a forecast.
Same-listing price movement over time ⟲ 3-day market index
Prior day’s final observation → latest observation today · identical listing × pickup date × trip length · listing-equal median log relative
View market-index evidence
| Day | Status | Level | Period change | 95% bootstrap interval | Matched listings | Matched trip prices | Support evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 92 | 2,888 | 1-day interval · 98.1% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Jul 28 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 95 | 3,049 | 1-day interval · 98.1% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Jul 29 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 94 | 3,055 | 1-day interval · 99.7% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Jul 30 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 92 | 3,014 | 1-day interval · 99.7% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Jul 31 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 94 | 3,116 | 1-day interval · 99.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 1 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 100 | 3,414 | 1-day interval · 99.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 2 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.3% | 103 | 3,633 | 1-day interval · 99.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 3 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 100 | 3,470 | 1-day interval · 99.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 4 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 103 | 3,569 | 1-day interval · 98.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 5 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 100 | 3,417 | 1-day interval · 97.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 6 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 100 | 3,437 | 1-day interval · 97.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 7 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 101 | 3,414 | 1-day interval · 98.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 8 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 105 | 3,589 | 1-day interval · 98.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 9 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 108 | 3,761 | 1-day interval · 99.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 10 | Supported | 98.31 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 108 | 3,782 | 1-day interval · 98.5% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 11 | Supported | 108.04 | 9.9% | 9.8% to 10.1% | 108 | 3,820 | 1-day interval · 98.5% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 12 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 110 | 3,829 | 1-day interval · 98.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 13 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 114 | 4,010 | 1-day interval · 98.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 14 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 116 | 4,099 | 1-day interval · 97.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 15 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 115 | 4,083 | 1-day interval · 97.4% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 16 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 112 | 3,944 | 1-day interval · 99.6% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 17 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 119 | 4,349 | 1-day interval · 98.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 18 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 118 | 4,367 | 1-day interval · 98.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 20 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | -0.7% to 0.0% | 110 | 3,962 | 2-day interval · 99.6% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 21 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 116 | 4,219 | 1-day interval · 97.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 22 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 117 | 4,328 | 1-day interval · 97.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 23 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 118 | 4,428 | 1-day interval · 99.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 24 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 117 | 4,391 | 1-day interval · 99.9% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 25 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 114 | 4,280 | 1-day interval · 98.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
| Aug 26 | Supported | 108.04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.0% | 113 | 4,138 | 1-day interval · 98.8% fresh · market-index-2.0 |
ReadSame cars, day over day — the honest version of “prices are up,” with fleet churn stripped out.
method & limits
Chains the prior day’s final genuine observation to the latest observation today for identical listing × pickup date × trip length; later observations revise today’s endpoint instead of adding another link. Each point needs at least 30 matched listings and 95% freshness in both observations; the series resets to 100 after an unsupported interval or a gap longer than seven days, never interpolates, and describes the matched cohort rather than the entire market.
What each added trip day costs ◉ same listing and pickup
Same car and pickup date · adding day N · strict less-than is separated from equality
Listing-equal marginal-day companion is collecting. Quote-window pairs above are not treated as independent listings; distinct listing counts will appear when the producer publishes them.
◆ 7 days costs strictly less than 6 for 7.0%; the totals are exactly equal for 0.2% of eligible pairs.
Listing-equal captured-discount distribution is collecting. Legacy quote-level discount points are not promoted into a listing-level claim.
ReadThe counterintuitive win: near a host discount boundary, one added day can cost almost nothing — sometimes the longer trip totals less.
method & limits
Measures the observed total-price change when one day is added to the same listing and pickup date, with strictly-cheaper/equal weekly splits and listing-equal captured discounts when available. A quote-window pair is listing × pickup date × trip length, so pair counts are not independent listings; the listing-equal companion and discount distribution stay collecting until distinct listing support is published.
Cars quoting each forward pickup day ◉ observed supply
Distinct listings quoting a 3-day trip per forward pickup date · supply observed in our quote window — not demand, bookings, or occupancy
Between 26 and 110 listings quote each supported forward pickup date in the latest observation.
ReadHow deep the bookable pool is on each forward date — a shallow date means fewer cars to compare, not necessarily higher prices.
method & limits
Counts distinct listings quoting the selected trip length for each forward pickup date in the latest observation, on dates that clear the shared support gate. Observed supply in our quote window only — never demand, bookings, occupancy, or a forecast; dates below the support floor are omitted rather than shown as zero.
Cross-market price gap ◉ 3d matched segments
Same Tesla model in ORD and LAX · each market independently requires 30 listings and 95% freshness
| Tesla model | ORD | LAX | Observed gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3 | $88.33/day$83.67–$96.33 · 46 listings | $93/day$88.00–$103.67 · 141 listings | +$4.67/day+5.3% · rough comparison — no uncertainty range for this percentage |
| Model Y | $88/day$74.50–$102.00 · 47 listings | $103.33/day$95.50–$108.67 · 205 listings | +$15.33/day+17.4% · rough comparison — no uncertainty range for this percentage |
ReadSame model, two cities — a quick check on which market quotes the cohort lower before you anchor on one quote.
method & limits
Compares current typical listing prices for the same Tesla model between ORD and LAX; each market independently requires 30 listings and 95% freshness. A descriptive market gap, not arbitrage; each market’s median has its own interval, and the displayed percentage ratio has none and is not a precise estimated effect.
// EVIDENCEreputation and badge associations · model-adjusted price factors · repricing activity — supporting context for the surfaces above
Price by listing history and badge ◉ 3-day trips
Selected-duration listing-equal associations · not demand, bookings, host earnings, or causal effects
Pooled model-adjusted association: -0.6% (95% interval -6.8% to 5.9%). Raw and adjusted estimates answer different questions.
Ratings are a noisy signal — retaliatory and erroneous reviews exist, and a 0 rating means never rated, not zero stars. Weigh any observed reputation premium accordingly.
ReadWhat a longer track record sells for today — decide whether a proven listing is worth its observed premium to you.
method & limits
Groups current typical listing prices by completed trips on the listing, plus the separately gated share carrying an observed All-Star badge. Associations only — not review quality, host quality, or causal reputation effects; the badge-share denominator has its own support gate, and raw price gaps require both cohorts to be supported.
Price factors after controlling for the others validated on separate listings
Full-fit, distance-neutral associations shown only after listing-holdout validation · not causes
ReadThe search filters that genuinely travel with price, separated from the knobs that mostly don’t move it.
method & limits
Shows which factors remain associated with price after the fitted Tesla model accounts for the other included variables, with accuracy reported on listings excluded from fitting. Model associations, not causes; held-out R² is the share of held-out price variation explained, typical multiplicative miss is the typical proportional prediction error, and Luxury remains unavailable until separately validated.
How often listings change price ⟲ newest 28 qualifying days
Listing changes ÷ listing comparisons · changed quote-comparison up/down share · selected inside a 90-day lookback
| Pickup lead | Listings repriced | Listing comparisons | Activity rate | Changed quote comparisons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2d | 3,039 | 20,324 | 15.0%28 newest qualifying days | 42.4% down · 57.6% up26,257 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 3–6d | 5,671 | 32,354 | 17.5%28 newest qualifying days | 40.1% down · 59.9% up63,768 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 7–13d | 6,945 | 40,595 | 17.1%28 newest qualifying days | 55.3% down · 44.7% up110,754 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 14–20d | 13,250 | 43,173 | 30.7%28 newest qualifying days | 43.0% down · 57.0% up216,996 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 21–29d | 15,161 | 46,838 | 32.4%28 newest qualifying days | 43.2% down · 56.8% up332,615 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 30–44d | 15,884 | 50,909 | 31.2%28 newest qualifying days | 50.4% down · 49.6% up707,295 changed quote-window comparisons |
| 45d+ | 16,456 | 52,914 | 31.1%28 newest qualifying days | 49.9% down · 50.1% up790,035 changed quote-window comparisons |
ReadIf your lead-time bucket reprices often, yesterday’s quote may already be gone — recheck before deciding.
method & limits
Counts how often supported listings changed price within each pickup-lead bucket, and whether changed quote-window comparisons moved down or up. Repricing activity only — not a typical move magnitude, demand, or a recommendation to wait; each bucket needs 28 qualifying days within the latest 90-day lookback.