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Host Pro model calibration

Predicted disappearance-proxy rates are compared with the next genuine market observation. These are aggregate market diagnostics, never per-host booking, occupancy, or earnings claims.

LAX · 2026-09

36,093realized cells · 21 days

16.32Brier score ×100 · lower is better

0.69calibration slope · aligned only at 1.00 with a 0.0 offset

+10.4offset at the mean · percentage points · 0.0 is unbiased

risk decile	n	modeled	realized	Brier
1	3,621	2.9%	10.7%	0.101
2	3,608	4.0%	10.2%	0.095
3	3,611	5.2%	11.7%	0.106
4	3,608	6.8%	12.9%	0.114
5	3,603	8.7%	15.6%	0.135
6	3,615	11.3%	19.8%	0.163
7	3,608	15.0%	23.6%	0.183
8	3,611	20.4%	28.4%	0.206
9	3,608	29.9%	35.9%	0.233
10	3,600	65.8%	52.6%	0.297

MODELED prediction vs REAL next-observation outcome · host-calibration-1.0 · hostpro-2.1 · slope and offset are the cell-weighted least-squares fit of realized on modeled

ORD · 2026-09

9,045realized cells · 21 days

16.28Brier score ×100 · lower is better

0.71calibration slope · aligned only at 1.00 with a 0.0 offset

+11.1offset at the mean · percentage points · 0.0 is unbiased

risk decile	n	modeled	realized	Brier
1	914	2.4%	9.7%	0.093
2	905	3.4%	12.8%	0.119
3	906	4.4%	16.1%	0.148
4	900	5.8%	13.2%	0.120
5	905	7.5%	15.6%	0.135
6	908	9.7%	18.9%	0.158
7	901	13.2%	20.6%	0.167
8	905	18.1%	28.2%	0.207
9	906	26.7%	33.1%	0.214
10	895	60.8%	49.9%	0.267

MODELED prediction vs REAL next-observation outcome · host-calibration-1.0 · hostpro-2.1 · slope and offset are the cell-weighted least-squares fit of realized on modeled

LAX · 2026-08

307,356realized cells · 21 days

5.32Brier score ×100 · lower is better

0.80calibration slope · aligned only at 1.00 with a 0.0 offset

+1.6offset at the mean · percentage points · 0.0 is unbiased

risk decile	n	modeled	realized	Brier
1	30,746	1.2%	2.5%	0.025
2	30,734	1.5%	3.8%	0.037
3	30,738	1.9%	4.2%	0.041
4	30,732	2.4%	4.2%	0.041
5	30,735	3.0%	4.3%	0.041
6	30,739	3.7%	4.5%	0.043
7	30,735	4.6%	5.2%	0.050
8	30,735	6.0%	5.3%	0.051
9	30,737	8.5%	5.8%	0.056
10	30,725	21.6%	20.3%	0.149

MODELED prediction vs REAL next-observation outcome · host-calibration-1.0 · hostpro-2.1 · slope and offset are the cell-weighted least-squares fit of realized on modeled

ORD · 2026-08

66,125realized cells · 21 days

5.50Brier score ×100 · lower is better

0.88calibration slope · aligned only at 1.00 with a 0.0 offset

+2.1offset at the mean · percentage points · 0.0 is unbiased

risk decile	n	modeled	realized	Brier
1	6,620	1.0%	2.9%	0.029
2	6,614	1.3%	3.7%	0.036
3	6,614	1.6%	4.1%	0.040
4	6,613	2.0%	4.5%	0.044
5	6,607	2.5%	5.0%	0.048
6	6,616	3.1%	5.4%	0.051
7	6,613	3.9%	5.9%	0.056
8	6,614	5.2%	5.6%	0.053
9	6,614	7.2%	6.2%	0.058
10	6,600	18.8%	19.0%	0.136

MODELED prediction vs REAL next-observation outcome · host-calibration-1.0 · hostpro-2.1 · slope and offset are the cell-weighted least-squares fit of realized on modeled